The New Strategic Reduction Arms Treaty (New START) between Russia and the United States is at risk of expiring without extension. Democrats consistently support its extension, viewing it as crucial for limiting nuclear arsenals and enhancing national security. However, the Trump administration, influenced by anti-arms control ideologues, has shown disinterest in maintaining international agreements, leading to the demise of other treaties such as the INF and Open Skies. The Russian government is open to an unconditional extension, but the U.S. has not reciprocated. The next administration will face the urgent task of rebuilding arms control frameworks, with limited time to extend New START or negotiate a new treaty amidst a challenging political climate.

President Trump's decision to withdraw from the Open Skies Treaty is criticized as a mistake that could signal the end of New START and is seen as a continuation of his disdain for arms control agreements. The move is a victory for hard-liners like Senator Tom Cotton and reflects John Bolton's influence on foreign policy. The withdrawal is viewed as harmful to European allies who rely on the treaty for intelligence on Russia and as increasing tensions with Moscow. Russian noncompliance is cited as a pretext for the exit, despite the Arms Control Association's stance that the issues are resolvable and do not constitute a material breach.

The Trump administration's appointment of Marshall Billingslea as a special envoy for nuclear talks signals a lack of interest in genuine arms control agreements. Billingslea, known for his hawkish stance on nuclear weapons and controversial involvement in the Bush administration's torture program, is unlikely to advance meaningful negotiations. With the New START treaty's expiration approaching, the administration's actions suggest a disregard for extending the treaty, potentially ending arms control as it currently exists between the U.S. and Russia.